A wild theory I have regarding the behold “issue”

I suspect that once a player hit a certain amount of super rare/legendary crew, there is some backend process that weights beholds for that player to contain crew they already have, be it fully fused crew or not fully fused crew.

If true, this would be really hard to find definitive evidence for.

What do you guys think?
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Comments

  • Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2018
    There is an algorithm which looks at your active crew, and then chooses or tries to choose something you don't have, within a certain percentage of possibility.

    I am almost at the point of proving this with the Voyages drops, as I am only missing 7 SR crew now from the entire collection, and Voyages drops an SR I need about 1 in 4 times, otherwise it drops nothing.

    The Voyages crew drops are the same for Portal, so I believe it exists there as well. Once you get to a certain level of crew, as you/we speculate, the beholds become more seldom, perhaps almost only for GOLD crew. Again, trying to give you something you don't have, but if you get an SR behold and you already have all 3 immortalized, think if you have one or all in the freezer? I have noticed this more and more as I get higher.

    As @GhostStalker mentioned, the exact same thing happened to me today. I had never gotten a top level Dabo before, but there was Kurn (Who has been sitting FE at level 100 for about a year), and he dropped for me on first spin to add his 3rd *.

    Just food for thought, but I would stake my 35 years of programming on it! (Yes, I am like NEO, I See Code!)
    "When the Future becomes the past, the present will become unlocked."
  • WaldoMagWaldoMag ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2018
    I pretty much given up on voyages dropping crew I need. The odds of me getting crew I need is very low. The results I am getting are lower still. The odds most certainly allow my results with a real RNG ( not pseudo) Some people will do better than me. My results just average those out.

    I really am not concerned about SR beholds being all FF. I am after legendaries. I currently only need three M-113 and one AoS La Forge. So the current odds for me on voyage is very low. Portal Beholds improve my chances but I need a lot of them to have a good chance of getting what I need. Just off the top of my head I would say 73.

    Edit: From list in portal 162 SR. Did a quick calc. 96.3% chance for me that a SR behold will be FF. Obviously my 73 above is low. I probably need double that.
    The problem once I pull a AoS La Forge my odds get worse. The odds of an all FF SR behold become 98.1%. Edit: on the average it would take 166 SR beholds.

    My current voyage drop is 1.2% chance. The problem with voyages, we do not know if anything else factors in to the drop chance. Suppose my dilemma choice divides the available SR crew down. My choice might keep me from having gotten the crew I needed.

    @Commander Sinclair
    You may have something there about getting crew that are in your freezer. It has been a while but I too had thought I was observing that. It just that I forgot about that because I am more concerned about legendaries.
  • BaragashBaragash ✭✭✭
    Worse for me, 2/4 T'mir is the only purple in normal circulation i haven't completed, and it's been that way for maybe 6 weeks. Admittedly she was only 1/4 6 weeks ago and Voyages threw me a bone. Hoping for a repeat of her pack soon......
  • Zetterbeard Zetterbeard ✭✭✭✭✭
    The only "trend" I see is one day you'll see a character pop up in the top row of Dabo, and then you'll see them in a behold, and then maybe they'll even pop up on a Voyage. I had never seen Kurn in almost a year and a half, and then I had two copies in a day. As did several others in my fleet. But I think that's just observer bias, honestly.

    Oh, also, if you're on a Voyage and your first set of AM gets you 3 super rare characters and you get excited and refresh the voyage, you're totally getting straight trainers after that.

    I had the same issue with Kurn. Never saw him in the time that I've been playing (since August 2017). He randomly dropped on a voyage, then I pulled him in a pack the following day.

    There are still a few crew that I haven't seen at all (Captain T'Pol being one).
  • Just to add anecdotal evidence to feed into more speculations, I have also recently acquired 2 copies of Kurn after he eluded me for the past two years.
  • Kurn! He too was the hardest for me to get. I just got my last * for him on a voyage yesterday. The odds we not in my favour. 1/162 (0.6%) I'm now done with all 4* from the portal.
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  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is Kurn any good? I just checked. I have 3 of him, 2 of which, I'm fairly certain, were from voyages in the past few weeks.
  • FutureImperfectaFutureImperfecta ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just a small note/ question about all the kurns
    Not showing up before and a whole lot of him now... I'm 95% sure he wasn't in standard premium until the last portal update..

    That would explain why so few before and so many now..
  • DraftedMcCoyDraftedMcCoy ✭✭✭✭
    I just came across Kurn the other day for the first time. I get a lot of packs and beholds, even after the update he was elusive.

    For the longest time Drafted McCoy and Professor Scott were two purples that I would never get in a behold.
  • I just came across Kurn the other day for the first time. I get a lot of packs and beholds, even after the update he was elusive.

    For the longest time Drafted McCoy and Professor Scott were two purples that I would never get in a behold.

    Drafted McCoy has sat in my crew quarters waiting for his final star longer than anyone else I've ever had. I have nearly everyone else in the regular portal FF, but McCoy just sits there staring at me. I cannot wait to send him to the vault one day.
  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 2018
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    Aarg they got me too. Though I think it just because I have so many super rares immortalized. Would be good if we could get a token 5k or 10k honor when this happens or a legendary or something else.
  • First Kurn for me too yesterday. 3 voyages in row have dropped Jennifer Sisko. Same has happened with other characters as well, like several Dominion dukats in row. I suppose there is an algorithm or the rng system is somehow flawed, but then again all this might just be pure chance and observer bias.
  • Three Kurns from voyages for me in the last month! Only had two stars on him as of June. Dude simply loves hanging out in old cargo containers lately
  • Dirk GundersonDirk Gunderson ✭✭✭✭✭
    Although I still don’t think I have ever seen Kurn, voyages have been cranking out a good supply of crew that I need more stars to finish. Today’s voyage is bringing me star #2 for both Ambassador K’Ehleyr and Commander Nevesa. I get airlock fodder as well, of course, but voyages are dropping crew I actually need far more consistently than the last many packs I’ve redeemed.
  • The one that eludes me is Warship Chakotay. Got 3 copies of him from his event waaay back in early 2017, and haven't seen him since. And I REFUSE to cite him. Because THAT is when he'll pop up.

    I got two copies of chakotay in that event. I was lucky enough to ff him with a dabo spin and a voyage.

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  • Zetterbeard Zetterbeard ✭✭✭✭✭
    Update from my previous post: I finally had Captain T'Pol drop for me in a voyage today. Surely more copies are to come lol.
  • robownagerobownage ✭✭✭✭✭
    I had a solid Voyage yesterday that delivered four purples. Of those, only one was immortalized and the others were all the third star. But I still haven't seen a single Captain T'Pol in almost a year worth of play.
  • I get the same beholds and it's still hundreds of crew I don't have at all!!
  • Commander SinclairCommander Sinclair ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 2018
    robownage wrote: »
    I had a solid Voyage yesterday that delivered four purples. Of those, only one was immortalized and the others were all the third star. But I still haven't seen a single Captain T'Pol in almost a year worth of play.

    She is elusive indeed. I had her at 2* for about a year, then 2 dropped in back to back Voyages one week about a month ago. There is still hope!
    I get the same beholds and it's still hundreds of crew I don't have at all!!

    The fact that you need "hundreds of crew" pretty much excludes you from this thread.
    "When the Future becomes the past, the present will become unlocked."
  • Today I bought the 650 dil pack that contained T'Mir and laborer spock (need) as well as Arex (don't need) . Of course I pulled Arex (thanks DB). but then my voyage dropped the last star for T'Mir, so that's cool, i guess...
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