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Probabilty with the 27k honor begolds (warning: Math problem within)


So there is a total of 258 golds in the game (not all in portal) I got 90, 17 of which are immortal.


What are, or how do I calculate the % chance of getting 1 of the 3 being one of the 73 I need stars for?

I got enough 1/5s sitting around taking up space (plus 4 in the mailroom) cause at FE lvl100, they are no good at 1/5

Comments

  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    If you have 4 in the mail room, I would say you should not gamble.

    I have decided not to risk it since despite how expensive citations are, I am guaranteed the crew I want.

    That said, I am curious about the math, too.
  • IronagedaveIronagedave ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 2018
    Firstly you need to create a list of all golds that are in portal and what ratio of legandaries of in portal you have unlocked including those that are ff (and in portal only), then work out what the percentage is. If it's less than 33%, which I suspect it might be, it might not be worth it, but if there are some other golds you wish to unlock I might take a punt as low as 30%.

    NB I unlocked Zhian'tara Odo - so it was good investment for me.
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  • 1. The probability to draw a legendary you either don't have or you already have fully fused is 185/258.
    2. With three legendarys in a behold, your chance that all three of them are new / FF is (185/258)^3.
    3. Your chance that you draw at least one of the 73 legendarys you need is therefore 1-(185/258)^3=63,1%.
  • 5000 Quatloos5000 Quatloos ✭✭✭✭✭
    About 191 of the legendaries are now in the portal.

    Of your 90/73, subtract out any which were added after about the end of June, which seems to be what the most recent portal update roughly caught us up to.

    Then update the math above accordingly...
    Accepted. Mark them, Galt.
  • 1. The probability to draw a legendary you either don't have or you already have fully fused is 185/258.
    2. With three legendarys in a behold, your chance that all three of them are new / FF is (185/258)^3.
    3. Your chance that you draw at least one of the 73 legendarys you need is therefore 1-(185/258)^3=63,1%.

    Thank you Laura,

    That was along the lines I was thinking, but I wasn't happy with the high percentage, and thus I felt I was missing something.

    So I did 3 pulls, and missed on all 9, which means that fraction is calculated at the ninth power which gave me a 5% chance of this happening (aka waste of 81k honor).
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