Portal update data collection opportunity

For those of us data nerds (paging @Travis S McClain )

I have had a theory for a while, which might just be confirmation bias, that portal/voyage drops seem to target specific crew during events, or sometimes just a specific crew seems to drop uncommonly often for a short time.

If that theory is correct, portal pulls and/or voyages (voyages have a different drop mechanism so might not follow the same pattern) during this mega event would drop a higher than expected ratio of scoundrels, as well as riker variants for this week for example.

Since we have a number of forum regulars who have been hoarding portal pulls waiting for the update, and we know it's happening in August, this seems like a unique opportunity to gather a large data set of drops to see if there appears to be a bias towards event trait/crew variants.

Thought I'd throw it out there to see if anyone else might be interested in gathering this data and analyzing it. Even the analysis is tricky, because there are a large number of scoundrels and we need to compare the total of their drops to non-scoundrels. If we did all pulls this week (just as an example) we could also analyze including Riker variants, and compare that drop rate to non-variants to see if there is a statistical difference.

I'd be interested to know this information for Legends in particular, but a separate analysis would be interesting for SR crew too. For example it would be interesting to know if more coffee janeways might drop during janeway events, paris events for mutant paris, etc.

It would also be interesting to note if any particular crew seemed to drop more than others who are not event variants. I had seen a VERY low drop rate for xindi counsellor for example, then suddenly within a week 3 of our fleet mates had him drop and more since. It seems like that crew's drop rate has increased, while others like FO Burnham remain lower. This of course might be further confirmation bias without more data!

Comments

  • Travis S McClainTravis S McClain ✭✭✭✭✭
    Anecdotally, I have wondered about this myself. I had Ambassador Sock drop in both a Voyage and a regular 10x pull last weekend, for instance. But I also think it may just be that I take notice of things like that because they're conspicuous and don't pay enough attention the rest of the time.
  • Dirk GundersonDirk Gunderson ✭✭✭✭✭
    I’m on board to provide data, as I was planning to record everything anyway simply due to the sheer number of packs I have hoarded for far longer than initially intended (163 singles, 223 10xs). I’m thinking of just posting the list of 4*/5* crew I kept and totals for honor/schematics here in The Bridge, while sending the full spreadsheet wherever and to whomever needs it.
  • I have not wondered about this. Bcuz through my own experience i have proven this theory to myself so i am sure you are correct.
    I get alot of 4* crew such as amb spock leading up to a spock event. To use your example the xindi counselor, exactly the same nvr saw that card until about 6-8 wks ago then suddenly 4 or 5 in my fleet including myself get the drop. This week almost all my voyages have produced sheriff worf and lots of rikers. Last week amb spock. The week before, gorn cpt. I take note of who is dropping in voyages bcuz it for sure correlates with upcoming bonus or event crew. Aprox 1-2 wks in advance of event. No coincidence. 👍🏻 Of course there are the random 4*’s. I am not saying rvery drop is correlated. But even the portal will drop 4* crew more often that are slated for bonus crew in an upcoming event. Playing for 3yrs, 8 months you take notice of these things over time.
    As far as coffee janeway and mutant paris i had tons of them dropping before the fused lizard janeway but of course i have both frozen so airlocked all of them for a month. 6-8 janeways and 3 mutant paris. 🤬
  • [Mirror] Sanoa[Mirror] Sanoa ✭✭✭
    edited August 8
    If you trust the Wiki this is not a theorie but a fact:

    dqohlppsqbl6.png

    ...at least for rare crew in event packs, but I think they increase the probability just everywhere and have observed this myself for SRs too, not for legendaries though, but I do not pull that much as that it would have any statistical relevance.
  • WebberoniWebberoni ✭✭✭✭✭
    As long as I've been playing I've noticed that variations of event crew tend to drop at a higher rate leading up to and during their event, both in portal pulls and on voyages. No stats in support of this theory, but several times my gut has correctly predicted an upcoming event crew based on an inordinate amount of drops of that particular character in the week leading up to their event.
  • If you trust the Wiki this is not a theorie but a fact:

    dqohlppsqbl6.png

    ...at least for rare crew in event packs, but I think they increase the probability just everywhere and have observed this myself for SRs too, not for legendaries though, but I do not pull that much as that it would have any statistical relevance.

    I've never noticed the behavior described there from event packs. But I'm well past the point where any rare crew is anything but a "waste." Still want the honor though.
  • YateballYateball ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have about 100 10x packs waiting and can contribute to this if needed
  • Webberoni wrote: »
    As long as I've been playing I've noticed that variations of event crew tend to drop at a higher rate leading up to and during their event, both in portal pulls and on voyages. No stats in support of this theory, but several times my gut has correctly predicted an upcoming event crew based on an inordinate amount of drops of that particular character in the week leading up to their event.

    Exactly. My gut agrees with your gut. Lol
  • Prime LorQa [10F]Prime LorQa [10F] ✭✭✭✭✭
    It would be interesting to see the stats. I'm sure it's a thing, but I'm more interested to see how big of an impact it is. Are we talking 5% of drops? That's my guess.
  • Well definitely something going on. I got the 5 2* portal pulls reward from this weekend event and got 2 5*.
  • FlemmingFlemming ✭✭✭✭✭
    I have lost count of the number of 2* Rikers which have come up in my voyages in the past few days.
    (One just dropped in my first dillema out)

    Might be related.
    Intentionally Left Blank
  • DavideBooksDavideBooks ✭✭✭✭✭
    I've long thought that they increase the odds of some crew during certain events. Hopefully they do not ever reduce odds on others.

    I'll try to make some kind of record while opening my saved pulls.
  • Travis S McClainTravis S McClain ✭✭✭✭✭
    I will also note that I've had a zillion Nurse Kes, which I attribute to having a 1/2 of her left open to fish for items.
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited August 9
    I'm thinking an easy method to track the data might be for each person to make a blank copy of the "latest crew lvl100" google sheet specifically for these pulls. Mark each one dropped, and use the comments section to put a number to indicate multiples of any one crew dropped.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zrObDH5UtTOfSm37pdMVmm7hwr2u6kMDgdWZpwfjON8/edit?usp=sharing

    If it's all in the same format like this, it'll be easier to compile together. I'm happy to collect and do some analysis, but I won't promise how fast I'll have results. :smile:
  • WebberoniWebberoni ✭✭✭✭✭
    Today would be a great day for a portal update... after a few months of stockpiling what is now up to 110 premium 10x pulls, my trigger finger is becoming quite itchy! The 500k+ honor and 4 5* citations are also burning a hole in my proverbial in-game wallet! Pretty please...
  • Cam TaliisCam Taliis ✭✭✭✭
    Not today.
  • eXo | SilverRoseeXo | SilverRose ✭✭✭✭✭
    https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/home/leaving?target=https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/54059/

    Favoring drops for variants is behavior that has existed since damn near Dawn of Game. The data collection has also already been done by two players - Space Lincolon and AA Sisko - in this thread https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/17985#Comment_17985
  • [DC] Principia[DC] Principia ✭✭✭✭
    edited August 12
    I don't have three digits' worth socked away (*insert monkey drummer GIF here*), but I can screencap each of my pulls after the update and log the results. (I have about 7 dozen pulls squirreled away, will probably have a few more out of the Campaign before the portal/Voyages update happens.)
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/home/leaving?target=https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/54059/

    Favoring drops for variants is behavior that has existed since damn near Dawn of Game. The data collection has also already been done by two players - Space Lincolon and AA Sisko - in this thread https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/17985#Comment_17985

    Thanks SilverRose. It's interesting that in the same post Shan is stating there's no preference for crew variants in drops, while 10k pulls is a very good data set to show a pattern emerge.

    I'm curious as to the methods used. I wonder if they were simply looking for patterns of the same crew dropping within a 1 week timespan and ignore traits/crew in events to see if any crew were occurring more, then do some random checks against traits/events to confirm the pattern for a given week.

    The more I think about this, I realize I probably don't have the math statistical knowledge to compile this data for more than a small timeframe. Thankfully this portal update is going to result in a lot of pulls in a short timeframe to analyze.
  • YateballYateball ✭✭✭✭✭
    Approaching half way through August... Hopefully we don't have to wait until the 31st lol
  • Dirk GundersonDirk Gunderson ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yateball wrote: »
    Approaching half way through August... Hopefully we don't have to wait until the 31st lol

    I’ve made the decision to stop spending until the portal update...it’s as much to give me a reason to save money as it is a commentary on how we’re nearly halfway through the month and are still waiting. That 3k/3k/15 offer yesterday was tempting, no doubt, but my wallet thanked me for avoiding it.
  • https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/home/leaving?target=https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/54059/

    Favoring drops for variants is behavior that has existed since damn near Dawn of Game. The data collection has also already been done by two players - Space Lincolon and AA Sisko - in this thread https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/comment/17985#Comment_17985

    Thanks SilverRose. It's interesting that in the same post Shan is stating there's no preference for crew variants in drops, while 10k pulls is a very good data set to show a pattern emerge.

    Literally Shan said:
    I will however confirm once again that event packs do not offer a higher chance to drop variants of event crew.
    which could also mean that the chance is increased _everywhere_ in the game and not specifically in event packs. This would fit to our observations regarding portal pulls and voyages as well.

    It voids the wiki-quote though I referred to earlier in this thread - it is probably outdated.
  • eXo | SilverRoseeXo | SilverRose ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's based off the Nod quote I also included
  • Synthetic CommanderSynthetic Commander ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's based off the Nod quote I also included

    Fair enough, but in those threads Shan also mentioned that Nod's quote may have been true in the past but is no longer the case.

    There were also comments from other users in the thread that stated there used to be text in the pack announcements that mentioned an increased odds for crew variants, and that text has of course not been present for quite some time.
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