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The Voyage Project (Part 3 - Tool Included)

Bylo BandBylo Band ✭✭✭✭✭
edited March 14 in The Bridge
(Link to version 1.1.0 of the VVT: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FxdGCLD_XWZkcHPc1PO-ihWRhBftaMaWfvVV6XNsPrg/edit#gid=1114378525)

As a special component of this third and almost certainly final part of the Voyage Project we will be introducing our brand new voyage tool to assist players in all aspects of improving their voyages. We call the tool the Viable Voyagers Tool (VVT) and I think you will love it, but I am very biased. It will be explained in greater detail later, but it is referenced a few times in my write up here so I wanted you to be aware of its existence at the start and to give you the initials so it is not confusing. I have setup a special Discord server for players to access and share screenshots and to ask for specific advice for both my new voyage system and the VVT. The join code for the server is on the Read Me page of the VVT but we ask that you keep all the general discussion, questions, etc here on the forums and leave the Discord server free for specific voyage diagnostics and screenshots. We love these forums and do not want to disrespect them needlessly, but we do understand that it is just easier to share screenshots and give specific advice on Discord.

In reviewing Part 2 (where we discussed the true nature of crew proficiency scores on voyages - https://forum.disruptorbeam.com/stt/discussion/17493/the-voyage-project-part-2-sort-of/p1) for this write up I feel a brief recap is in order. After publishing I worked with a handful of players and shared with them my new voyage system in preparation for this portion of the project and several times I was contacted by people in the early stages of adopting my new voyage system (more on that later!) and they were asking me why their voyages failed to reach 10 hours. Each time I would go over the screenshots and without fail, every time I found multiple High Proficiency crew like Gary Seven, Warship EMA, Mirror Shukar, etc and after diagnosing these issues changes were made and subsequent attempts were successful. Then during last weekend's event I got stuck with the Tholian ship trait and decided to test proficiency risk and use FOUR High Proficiency crew like Locutus and Amelia Earhart and I got everything lined up for another potential 10 hour voyage, and for the first time in months my voyage failed to hit 10 hours!

High Proficiency crew and their corresponding spikes of RNG are the enemy of both voyage predictability and reliability and the reverse is also true, the increased RNG from High Proficiency crew is the fuel that enables voyages chasing 12 hours, and to everyone who has been asking for a list of those crew or how to identify them, fear not, we have you covered (keep reading until the end!). The larger issue here however is that RNG is the enemy of reliability and performance, but crew proficiency is not the only source of RNG in voyages, there are a couple of others and it is important to understand what they are and how they can be countered by the player.

Ship traits and seat traits play a fairly significant part in every voyage as they enable a total of 450 additional anti-matter (AM). As far as is known there is no way for players to directly control this, each day the ship and seat traits seem to be random, the best a player can do to control this form of RNG is to max out as many 5* ships as possible and collect a wide array of crew with a diverse distribution of traits to try and match those seats.

Maximizing the starting AM in this way allows players to control to some degree the final source of voyage RNG, that being skill hazards. The widely accepted probability for voyage skill hazards is Gold = 35%, Silver = 25%, Tertiary = 10% each (incidentally we tested this ourselves and it checked out) which means that over the course of a 10 hour voyage you can expect approximately 130 hazards for your gold skill, 97 for your silver skill, and 38 for each of your four non-feature skills, so naturally it makes sense to load up on the gold and silver. That being said, while the odds eventually even out over a long voyage, at any given point in the voyage it is possible to hit many non-feature skills in a row, leading to a rapid loss of AM which threatens the life of the voyage since the non-feature scores are lower and begin failing much earlier, therefore having more AM is key to overcoming those short runs of bad RNG. In this sense the player that makes sure to start as many voyages as possible with the maximum bonus AM of 450 buys themselves the maximum time for their RNG "odds to get even" (RIP Neil Peart).

The key to unlocking your maximum voyage potential once you control for your desired proficiency risk and level up your 5* ships is crew traits! Whether you are gambling on a 12 hour voyage or following the Bylo Method (description to come!) where you strive to reliably hit 10 hours and recall 100% of the time, everyone benefits from maximizing their starting AM. To achieve this reliably players will want to make sure their roster of voyagers has a diverse collection of not only skill pairs but also traits, to make sure they can hit as many of seat bonuses as possible.

Wading into the sea of crew traits is daunting to say the least, there are so many to keep track of. Not all traits are created equal either, as only certain traits are ever featured on voyages and further still not every trait featured on voyages appear in every skill seat. Here then is a table that shows the 45 traits that appear on voyages, and which seats those traits give a seat bonus.

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Comments

  • WebberoniWebberoni ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 10
    I'll definitely take a look at the tool, and appreciate all the work and collaboration that went into this.

    I aim for this breakdown, which almost always allows me to hit a 10-hour voyage:
    - Primary: at least 11.75 k
    - Secondary: at least 11.5 k
    - Other 4: at least 22.0 k total (none under 4.0 k individually)

    I had never thought about the comparison between similarly ranked voyage crew when one is driven by a high base and the other by high proficiencies. That's definitely food for thought...
  • ~peregrine~~peregrine~ ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 10
    Nice work, y’all! The trait/skill/seat matching scoring system looks to be worth a deep dive down through my roster for citation & retrieval decisions.
    The rest of the math confirms most of my methodology for voyage staffing since January 2020, which I first learned about in an old 10-hour voyage thread (I’m sure @Banjo1012 remembers it well!) in the Ready Room:
    A while back I did a lengthy bit of testing and theory crafting that ultimately led to the following rule:
    If you were to convert all your stats to points that you could assign as you pleased, the longest possible voyage without refills would come from starting with roughly 6000 points each in the gold and silver skills, and then taking all remaining points and dividing them 1/6th into gold, 1/6th into silver, and the remainder, divide among the other 4 in any way you wish, SO LONG AS no one of the skills exceeds your gold or silver skill.

    What does that mean? Well, let's say you have 45,000 points to spend. You start off putting 6k each in gold and silver, so that you get
    6000, 6000, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Now you have 33,000 points remaining. 5500 each will go into silver and gold
    11500, 11500, 0, 0, 0, 0
    And you're left with 22,000 to spend on the remaining 4. You could (theoretically) put 11,000 into 2 skills and 0 into the other 2 and get exactly the same expected run time as 5,500 in each skill.

    11500, 11500, 10500, 10500, 500, 500
    11500, 11500, 8000, 6000, 4000, 4000
    Both missions should run roughly the same amount of time.

    Now, if you REALLY want to get bogged down, the exact values to substitute in there are:
    Starting value of gold/silver skills = 2x starting antimatter
    31% of points go into gold/silver after that, 69% into the other 4.
    Gold can be 1 point higher than silver, but only 0 or 1 point difference achieve the highest run time. Anything beyond that is wasted.
    Same is true for off-star skills that are above either one.
    "In the short run, the game defines the players. But in the long run, it's us players who define the game." -- Nicky Case, The Evolution of Trust
  • Prime Lorca [10FH]Prime Lorca [10FH] ✭✭✭✭✭
    I appreciate the work you all put into this. Thanks. I can attest that that system does work for 10 hr reliability. I have been doing something similar myself for a long time. I get my primary and secondary to about 12k, then get all tertiary above 5k which usually results in them being between 21k-23k. I have found if your tertiary skills are all above or close to 5k you will very rarely fail any hazard before 4 hrs which leaves me with an am at 8hrs of about 1500. It is exceedingly rare I do not make 10hrs. I would probably guess the high proficiency of some crew may be the cause for the rare shortfall but have not looked at that much to say.

    I am curious what you consider high proficiency that should be avoided? Do you have an approximate number? Avoiding people with huge prof would be easy but the middle high ones like Warship EMA I am unclear about what qualifies for that. Can you give me an average number or range that would qualify as high enough to be avoided?

    I'll let Bylo answer, of course, but the question seemed worthy of making a new tab, called Low_RNG. It has crew ranked from low to high RNG. Basically, the top one-third is at or below 7%.

    I also think it's worth noting that many of the best MED crew have high proficiencies. MED is in a category all its own in several categories.
    Forum recruiter for [10F], +FH+, and [10FA]
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  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Nice work, y’all! The trait/skill/seat matching scoring system looks to be worth a deep dive down through my roster for citation & retrieval decisions.
    The rest of the math confirms most of my methodology for voyage staffing since January 2020, which I first learned about in an old 10-hour voyage thread (I’m sure @Banjo1012 remembers it well!) in the Ready Room:
    A while back I did a lengthy bit of testing and theory crafting that ultimately led to the following rule:
    If you were to convert all your stats to points that you could assign as you pleased, the longest possible voyage without refills would come from starting with roughly 6000 points each in the gold and silver skills, and then taking all remaining points and dividing them 1/6th into gold, 1/6th into silver, and the remainder, divide among the other 4 in any way you wish, SO LONG AS no one of the skills exceeds your gold or silver skill.

    What does that mean? Well, let's say you have 45,000 points to spend. You start off putting 6k each in gold and silver, so that you get
    6000, 6000, 0, 0, 0, 0
    Now you have 33,000 points remaining. 5500 each will go into silver and gold
    11500, 11500, 0, 0, 0, 0
    And you're left with 22,000 to spend on the remaining 4. You could (theoretically) put 11,000 into 2 skills and 0 into the other 2 and get exactly the same expected run time as 5,500 in each skill.

    11500, 11500, 10500, 10500, 500, 500
    11500, 11500, 8000, 6000, 4000, 4000
    Both missions should run roughly the same amount of time.

    Now, if you REALLY want to get bogged down, the exact values to substitute in there are:
    Starting value of gold/silver skills = 2x starting antimatter
    31% of points go into gold/silver after that, 69% into the other 4.
    Gold can be 1 point higher than silver, but only 0 or 1 point difference achieve the highest run time. Anything beyond that is wasted.
    Same is true for off-star skills that are above either one.

    If you are referring to the thread where I was completely shredded as a human being then yes, I remember it well.

  • Prime Lorca [10FH]Prime Lorca [10FH] ✭✭✭✭✭
    3 MED primary crew in the top 1/3rd of Low_RNG. One of them is Nona (not great). Soji Asha is only two below the top 1/3rd. Anyway... MED primary crew are horrible when it comes to RNG. But ya gotta do those MED voyages somehow. My instinct is just do your best and expect that RNG may not always be kind. That really goes without saying in this game. It two days of playing to realize how RNG works in this game. I feel goofy for saying it. :D
    Forum recruiter for [10F], +FH+, and [10FA]
    Ten Forward Loungers - Give Your Best, Get Our Best!
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  • JimBerlinJimBerlin ✭✭✭
    Working on fixing a minor issue in the tool. Odds calculation formula did not propagate correctly past the current crew's ending row. So, when I tried to add the new Spock in a test copy, he had incorrect odds for tertiary seat trait matching. Will fix shortly and input the new voyager once I'm certain it's working correctly.
  • JimBerlinJimBerlin ✭✭✭
    Fixed. Looks like the new Spock is in already thanks to Lorca. Carry on.
  • JimBerlinJimBerlin ✭✭✭
    edited March 10
    ...

    I am curious what you consider high proficiency that should be avoided? Do you have an approximate number? Avoiding people with huge prof would be easy but the middle high ones like Warship EMA I am unclear about what qualifies for that. Can you give me an average number or range that would qualify as high enough to be avoided?

    ...

    I also think it's worth noting that many of the best MED crew have high proficiencies. MED is in a category all its own in several categories.

    Heat maps in the Adjusted Rankings help put that into view. Just keep in mind that the basis for the color is the output Top N Viable Voyagers table... so the 50th percentile is midpoint, high value in list is red by default, and low value is green. I hope that helps.

    Edit: what's "good" in CMD/MED may be different than CMD/ENG
  • Prime Lorca [10FH]Prime Lorca [10FH] ✭✭✭✭✭
    RaraRacing wrote: »
    Quick comment ...

    Thanks a bunch for this @ all the people involved!!

    ... now on to the reading of the post (and seeing where my all-time fave RAF O'Brien ranks) :) ... after I've finished bathing the kids ...

    He made a couple top 25 lists. He's interesting to say the least. :)
    Forum recruiter for [10F], +FH+, and [10FA]
    Ten Forward Loungers - Give Your Best, Get Our Best!
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  • Good job everyone involved!
    Just some notes to pass along.
    1 Add headers to the bonuses sheet
    2 New Eden Pike has a copy paste error with Nepenthe Troi

    Great start so far, lots of things to dig into.
  • Prime Lorca [10FH]Prime Lorca [10FH] ✭✭✭✭✭
    RW_Eagle wrote: »
    Good job everyone involved!
    Just some notes to pass along.
    1 Add headers to the bonuses sheet
    2 New Eden Pike has a copy paste error with Nepenthe Troi

    Great start so far, lots of things to dig into.

    Thank you for the feedback. Both are fixed.
    Quick admission: I've been responsible for most of the data entry errors so far, including this one.
    Forum recruiter for [10F], +FH+, and [10FA]
    Ten Forward Loungers - Give Your Best, Get Our Best!
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  • (HGH)Apollo(HGH)Apollo ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 11
    Bylo Band wrote: »
    @(HGH)Apollo Warship EMA is a unique challenge IMO and almost defies classification. In Community terms, he is the Nicholas Cage of STT. He just "Is". Going strictly off of his variance score he is basically 10% and therefore dangerous, but when you factor in his unique traits, his really useful skills, and his trait/skill matches, he becomes almost a mandatory inclusion despite being dangerous.

    I would classify him as a necessary evil, lol. Just slide your numbers when you use him and you'll be fine. I use him fairly regularly, I just make sure to keep my other numbers button down and things still work out.

    But I am still a little confused as to what constitutes a high proficiency number to be avoided? How high is too high? Or is it more just trying to eliminate using any crew with any proficiency? It would be helpful to me if I could see ranges. Like higher than 1000 total proficiency should be avoided? 1500? Is it just their proficiency in the primary/secondary skill or just any high proficiency? Should I avoid or limit middle proficiency crew as well? It is hard to avoid using these crew if I cannot tell who they are by looking at their numbers. If I could get clarification on this it would be very helpful to me. Thanks.
    Let’s fly!
  • The QuigglerThe Quiggler ✭✭
    edited March 11
    Clear as mud?
    You guessed it. Great work, very impressed and clear as mud, or Mudd! LoL
    A healthy attitude is contagious but don't wait to catch it from others. Be a carrier.
  • Banjo1012Banjo1012 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I thank you for this work. It is great. I had personally found that getting my gold to about 13K and silver to 12K was a good goal, but I couldn't be confident unless I got all my tertiary skills to 4K or better. Then your last voyage guide came out and I've tried to keep out the most obvious high-proficency crew. Now this helps solidify ideas I was already forming and improves them. This is great.

    I also appreciate you guys getting this out befor thebhonor sale. Good thinking there and very considerate.

    My problem is that I have much less access to a computer for all of this. At work I can't use my computer for any of this, and at home I have family activity. I can't look up crew as I plan out my voyages so well.

    So what I need is a brief list of who would be the "traditional" best crew due to proficiency rating. In other words, a list of the most common crew to avoid. (For instance, I can remember to avoid Gun Show Picard and Gary Seven, but there are a lot of good voyage crew like First Officer Burnham, Braxton, or Sinister Picard who I don't know if they are good proficiency or just good all-around.)

    And I also wonder if you have a list of the top crew to get who may be un-thought-of. I have hundreds (literally) of 1/5 and 2/5. I don't even know where to begin except by all they old lists of top voyagers. Can we get a "Bylo's Top 30" or a top 3 for each pairing or some place to start? That would be great.

    I’m sort of in the same boat. I don’t have a computer at home, but I do at work. What I did was work out the best possible scenario for all 15 possible voyage pairs (I’m shooting for 12 hours so I found one ideal set up for each) then put each one in the notes on my phone. It’s right there ready to go. Only thing is sometimes I can move crew around to try and trait match but I keep the crew the same.

  • GitssacGitssac ✭✭
    Amazing work! Huge thanks to all involved and hopefully great timing for an upcoming honour sale.

    Looking forward to sitting down with this spreadsheet (now there’s something I don’t say every day...) and deciding which crew to work on next! Current projects are Reverend Phlox and Boothby Replicant, so interested to see how they figure in the grand plan.

    Thanks again for your dedication to the cause. LLAP
  • enzo_karottienzo_karotti ✭✭
    edited March 11
    Hi there!
    First of all: WOW! I'm really impressed by all your knowlegde and the dedication for the game that you put so much work into such a tool. Thank you!

    I downloaded a copy and tried it out. Put my current voyage crew into the slots at "Your_Voyage", but instead of showing numbers I got "Error:511". I added a ";0" before the last bracket, which solved it.
    I'm using Libre Office 7.1 (german version).
    a7xe7mjdr500.jpg
  • Prime Lorca [10FH]Prime Lorca [10FH] ✭✭✭✭✭
    I thank you for this work. It is great. I had personally found that getting my gold to about 13K and silver to 12K was a good goal, but I couldn't be confident unless I got all my tertiary skills to 4K or better. Then your last voyage guide came out and I've tried to keep out the most obvious high-proficency crew. Now this helps solidify ideas I was already forming and improves them. This is great.

    I also appreciate you guys getting this out befor thebhonor sale. Good thinking there and very considerate.

    My problem is that I have much less access to a computer for all of this. At work I can't use my computer for any of this, and at home I have family activity. I can't look up crew as I plan out my voyages so well.

    So what I need is a brief list of who would be the "traditional" best crew due to proficiency rating. In other words, a list of the most common crew to avoid. (For instance, I can remember to avoid Gun Show Picard and Gary Seven, but there are a lot of good voyage crew like First Officer Burnham, Braxton, or Sinister Picard who I don't know if they are good proficiency or just good all-around.)

    And I also wonder if you have a list of the top crew to get who may be un-thought-of. I have hundreds (literally) of 1/5 and 2/5. I don't even know where to begin except by all they old lists of top voyagers. Can we get a "Bylo's Top 30" or a top 3 for each pairing or some place to start? That would be great.

    There are brief lists in the Top_25s tab. It has the top 25 crew in a bunch of metrics. That may be a problem on a small device, like a phone. They are brief lists, but there are too many of them. If it's not a problem, then there's your tab.

    My alternative to that is my second-favorite tab: Combined_Rolls.
    (The Your_Voyage tab is my favorite.)
    The Combined_Rolls tab organizes crew in two groups: "Best Guarantee" and "Most Potential".
    The "Best Guarantee" list ranks crew in terms of their combined minimum roll. Basically, if your RNG is a 1 every time, these are the crew who will take you the furthest. They have the highest Base + Min Proficiency. If you are looking for a guarantee, then I recommend using this "Best Guarantee" list.
    The "Most Potential" list is sort of the opposite. If you're chasing that 12-hour voyage, then getting good rolls at 10-12 hours is important. Crew on the "Most Potential" list can potentially pass those late hazards. Their score is based on their Base + Max Proficiency. If you're going for 12 hours, then you may want to consider crew from this list.
    There's crossover on these lists. For example, Captain Braxton is #5 on one list and #7 on the other. His base + min proficiency and base + max proficiency are both good. He'll definitely take you far and might take you very far. On the other end of the spectrum is Mirror Spock. Whoa! He is second from bottom of one list and third from bottom on the other. He will definitely take you nowhere! He's +1 Vulcan, +1 Mirror, and has some event and arena/skirmish use, but... as a voyager he is useless. (I say this as someone who has him at 5/5 for those other uses.)

    There is also (thanks to Apollo) a Low_RNG tab. They are the most consistent crew in the game. They may or may not be consistently good, but they are consistent. I used the tab to see where the top one-third, middle one-third, and bottom one-third are in terms of variability. You can see that this has two shortcomings. First, MED primary crew aren't well represented because they tend to have the highest proficiencies. Second, as implied, they are not consistently good, just consistent. You're going to have MED voyages, so RNG is just going to be a part of those. You can try to minimize it if you want, but you might end up getting consistent 9:45 voyages.

    So... I typed all that and I'm not going to delete it in case someone finds it useful, but I should have just asked: What are your voyage goals? What other game play modes do you care about, @DavideBooks ?
    Forum recruiter for [10F], +FH+, and [10FA]
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