DB please hire a proper statistician

I know that you probably already have a "maths guy" and we all know that he is either your cousins son Bob (who you have to hire because well he's family isn't he, and if you didn't your gran would never forgive you and that would make family meals awkward!) or that he is holding your kids hostage (seriously DB if this is the case put some sort of indication in the game and we will contact the authorities!). Either way your "maths guy" doesn't actually understand maths.

This is clear because everything that involves the RNG seriously **tsk tsk**. I have personally come across million to one shots happening on shuttles twice in four runs (in a cluster of failure events which is statistically virtually impossible). I know your "maths guy" is telling you that if you run enough missions it can happen - but if it happens in a cluster the reality is likely to be a problem in the RNG.

The same is true with Gauntlet, if you enter into a match with a 5% character knowing that only three crits would win the game for your opponent you should not expect to lost that match but this happens far too often.

Matching against the same character but at a lower level (Fully Equipped vs Partially Equipped) typically results in the Partially equipped character winning (again typically due to magical crits). This also tends to happen more often when you are on streaks and you are going for a multiple of three. Yes, this could just be bad luck but it happens so often that I can't help thinking that the RNG is not quite as random as we might hope.

The RNG is very important to your game and need to have one that has been developed by someone who understands maths and not family who can't get another job and/or hostage takers.

Comments

  • This thread should probably be in the Make It So area. Just saying. Also, you’re totally right, @Hunter247 , DB should at least see about doing some kind of temporary study with a group of people who really know what they’re doing. And not just from inside the system, but also literally playing the game as players themselves for a week or two to really understand what it’s all like.
    Weirdly enough, I’m also Vulcan Housewife. Also, RNGesus hates me, like really, REALLY hates me.
  • Perhaps they should look at the WELL-512 algorithm for better RNG:

    http://www.lomont.org/Math/Papers/2008/Lomont_PRNG_2008.pdf

    I have seen this in action, and it makes a much better RNG than the normal algebraic hashing algorithms.
  • Very well worded. This post is 100% legitimate
  • Which stats are the most important?
  • I think what you really want is a programmer, to develop an alternative to the RNG system.

    However, my wife and I are both involved in statistical analysis, and I can only speak for myself but if there is a need for someone to run stats I'm willing to work for dilithium.
    My 8-Point STT Strategy:

    1. Voyage.
    2. Have fun. If something isn't fun, don't do it.
    3. Only pursue characters I care about.
    4. Contribute to the fleet.
    5. No more spending beyond monthly cards.
    6. Have fun.
    7. Voyage.
    8. Have fun!
Sign In or Register to comment.