[TOOL] Voyage Estimator (+help us gather data!)

Chewable C++Chewable C++ ✭✭✭
edited January 14 in Ready Room
Based on quite a bit of voyage run data, I devised a calculator to estimate voyage time based on starting AM and crew skills:

https://codepen.io/somnivore/full/Nabyzw

Switch to editor view to see the source code with the formulas, or click here:

https://codepen.io/somnivore/pen/Nabyzw


My original spreadsheet that also has this calculator as well as some raw data:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IS2qEggZKo1P1kBJq-qoDxJvxtKfQXpfVna9z4E_dNo/edit?usp=sharing

It would help to have more data. I’ve created a form where anybody can submit their skill/ship voyage stats along with the actual voyage time. I can use this to refine the variables used by the estimation formulas:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdWEJWABCVZiBKWeTnFevCYeg9f9DCG_x49KdlSnGTOh3acEQ/viewform?usp=sf_link
Please contribute all your data points - not just the outliers (i.e. don’t just contribute when the estimate is off for you)

Here is another form for hazard check totals to help us confirm the exact chance of primary vs secondary vs other skills being checked for hazards:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScAWaefv0h1Rc2m-plYWeA6KkV_M-qDMBUbMLN1FORvm8J5gA/viewform?usp=sf_link

Quick crew allocation tips:
* Don’t give up skills for traits. Each trait only adds about 1 minute (per refill)
* Prioritize primary and secondary skills. The chance of primary, secondary, and other skills being tested for hazards are: 35%, 25%, and 10%
* Go for crew that have the highest total skills
* Avoid any one skill being very high (even primary/secondary skills). The goal is to reach a point where all hazard checks fail. If one skill is too high, the voyage will end while that skill is done making successful hazard rolls. I will try to add automated warnings to my estimator later, but try to keep your highest skill to be under 1000*hours estimated.
* The optimal distribution is to have primary and secondary skills at the aforementioned “cap”. For example 8000/8000/1000/1000/1000/1000. Ultimately, it depends on the crew you have available. Basically, to compute the value of each crew, add the product of each skill multiplied by the skill check chance (I may add a little calculator panel for this later). If you are comparing two crew, you can just find their skill differences for pri/sec/other and multiply those by 3.5/2.5/0.1 and compare the result. (Or use Peachtree Rex's spreadsheet which computes all this for you)
* If you know you are going to refill with dilitihium, you can ignore the distribution/cap guideline above and just maximize (the estimator now provides estimates for first and second refill!)
* Slots only restrict what crew can go there. So out of the crew you want to use, arrange them such that you get the most trait bonuses (without sacrificing total skill levels for it). What I do is I first populate non-pri/sec slots with largest pri/sec skills I have that have the slot trait. Then I fill out the rest of the non-pri/sec slots. Finally, I fill out secondary and primary slots.

P.S. If you’re near the end (failing all hazard checks) and want to estimate the time left, just divide AM by 21 for an accurate estimate (in minutes), or by 22 for a safe estimate. I plan to add this to the estimator page later when I have a bit more free time. If the difference between your highest and lowest skills is very large, this estimate will be less accurate.

Original thread: https://forums.disruptorbeam.com/stt/viewthread/70176/
«1345

Comments

  • Burnham, MichelleBurnham, Michelle ✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    Awesome! From my own estimations you need about 2,500 antimatter for a 2 hour voyage. Skill check difficulty rises at about 21 per minute so with a skill level of 2,500 you will start to fail hazards at the 2hr mark and you have just enough antimatter in a decent 6*5 ship to run you to the next dilemma.

    5099u0d87tba.png


    The check ratio is the same as I'd calculated but it is widely variable, in my last voyage the secondary was tested almost as frequently as my primary and in others it worked out at 40/20/10/10/10/10
  • System failure

    cpr7o9kb2azv.png
  • I don't under s r and the above comment as I always, at least in my first 6 voyages get 4 hr 19 min on first load as it doesnt really start to drop until after initial dilemma... then little less than two hours on each additional. I stopped at the 12 hour point as DL isn't worth it if you don't have a lot to spare... I normally try to keep 1000 on hand... I'm tired of getting six 1 and 2* cards and one 3* AND LAST VOYAGE two 4*. I got 850 chrons as well.. but cost over 250dl. If you want best bang for buck it's the way to go in spending though.... by far.... I have a bunch of screenshots... thx for the info guys!!
  • Excellent work on calculator btw.
  • I see you are talking refills, not initial loading... my bad... sorry. BTW my initial totals are around 16k with medical being the min with about 1100... can't seem to cr a ck the 2k mark on med... :)
  • Hi Fuzz, that's my balanced loading to get me to the second dilemma using no refills. It makes it easy for me to check in and return. I get 100-150 chrons for a 4 hour trip with an hour and a half to return, matches 2 loads of shuttle trips for time, and I can do 2 voyages per day. I have upped my best crew's skills over the last 2 weeks so I easily hit the second dilemma without having to check in and return if I'm running low on fuel. The skills are all now above 2,400 so that's working well for me - finally. If I want to do a refill it will cost me about 50 dil and get me to the third dilemma, it's not enormously expensive and will get me more gear but it will put out the timing of a 5 1/2 hour voyage and shuttle runs so it's probably not worth it unless I do a second refill and do a day run. But that'll cost me another 75 dil or so. I'm on a monthly card and I buy an event pack most weeks so that doesn't leave me much extra dil to play with!
  • I'll post my newest attempts later t I day...
  • To clarify - for the first form (with skill values) I'm looking for the starting AM (ship + ship trait + crew traits).
  • Jftr, I updated some voyages in he calc... my last 12 hr trip as follows.
    2725 start. Lvl borg 5 ship full. In decreasing order from primary, sec, etc, etc...
    2620
    3236
    3297
    3149
    2520
    1149

    4hr24m 0 refill 52 dl
    6hr28m 0 refill 76 dl
    8hr 32m 0 refill 128 dl
    10h36m 0 refill 162 dl
    12h40m 0 refill 192 dl
    Recall 52 dl remaining...
    Wasn't gonna lose all the chrons and two 4* plus six 2*, 250+ replic... lots of crap on that one...
    Mike
  • dext74dext74 ✭✭✭
    Have you noticed any specific data point/trends in regards to the skill number?

    It seems to me that Hazards have a number that they check against that raises every hour of game play...

    0-1hour = 1500
    1 hour-2hours = 2000
    2 hours-3hours = 2500
    3 hours-4hours = 3000

    Is this an accurate assumption or am I over generalizing?
  • MagisseMagisse ✭✭✭✭✭
    Very nice! I added some data for you. Thanks for doing this for the community, maybe it can get a sticky!
  • dext74 wrote: »
    Have you noticed any specific data point/trends in regards to the skill number?

    It seems to me that Hazards have a number that they check against that raises every hour of game play...

    0-1hour = 1500
    1 hour-2hours = 2000
    2 hours-3hours = 2500
    3 hours-4hours = 3000

    Is this an accurate assumption or am I over generalizing?

    The data I have suggests that that number is actually around 1250. I'm currently using 1230 for the calculator but I think 1250 is more likely as it's a round number a developer might pick. Of course it could also be 1234 ;)

    That's actually the variable in the equation that I have least confidence about currently. You can see that variable in my spreadsheet on the first and second page.

    I have speculated that there might be a starting difficult that is not 0, but I haven't tried to model or prove that yet. If so, I doubt it makes a big difference, and I suspect the starting number is quite small (to accommodate new players with unleveled crew).
  • XoiikuXoiiku ✭✭✭✭
    If it is helpful, these are the 3 screen shots I take which have all the data you need to fill out the forms for both STT Voyage Hazard Counts and STT Voyage Data

    1. Starting Antimatter at beginning of the voyage as well as Primary and Secondary Skills:
    g8ie4b2qady2.png

    2. Actual Voyage Time excluding refills/recall and Unused Antimatter:
    v6j3qn8uif5y.png

    3. Hazard Checks:
    u05agfk8adjt.png

    Spreadsheet: STT Voyage Time Estimator
    TOOL: STT Voyage Estimator
    We are all downstream from each other and ourselves, therefore choose to be relaxed and groovy.
    Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
  • Awesome work. I will collect the data from my voyages and send them in.
  • If it is helpful, these are the 3 screen shots I take which have all the data you need to fill out the forms for both

    Thanks. I added them to the forms directly in case that helps clarify.
  • Awesome work. I will collect the data from my voyages and send them in.

    Thanks!
  • C++ I now have 23 Voyages logged in my spreadsheet. I should have #24 in a few hours:
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Xtrtkq6mWt1NjoL_cvEsACPiWfluVLupmEl21EBKzXY

    I see some screenshots with some funky numbers. For example, Xoiiku - why do you have your Gold * skill at second to lowest skill points? The gold star skill comes up 35% of the time, whereas silver is about 25% and other 4 are 10-12%. One of the better strategies is to load up on Gold and silver, and get what you can in the rest.

    I also see others balancing all 6 skills around 2,000 - 2,500 points. Again, getting past the 4 hour dilemma you will lose just about every hazard running your AM out quicker.

    I understand that if it's the only crew you got, then that's all you got. But understanding the strategy and the numbers will help extend the free part of the voyage before running out of AM.
  • Chewable C++Chewable C++ ✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    C++ I now have 23 Voyages logged in my spreadsheet. I should have #24 in a few hours:
    https://drive.google.com/open?id=1Xtrtkq6mWt1NjoL_cvEsACPiWfluVLupmEl21EBKzXY

    That's awesome data there. I already copied most of the runs to my sheet. Will continue to pull updates every once in a while.

    I also tried taking your already lined up data to directly compute the Difficulty/hr variable.

    Unfortunately, the standard deviation is too high with the data available. It wasn't as useful as I had hoped. You can see the analysis on the C. Jello page I added to my sheet (scroll down). It actually scared me because the average was close to 1500. So I thought maybe there is something very wrong with my calculation - but I don't think there is, this is just not a large enough sample.

    As noted in OP, I agree with regard to weighing primary and secondary much higher. ENG can be hard to come by though, so that's probably why those screenshots look weird.

  • That's awesome data there. I already copied most of the runs to my sheet. Will continue to pull updates every once in a while.

    I also tried taking your already lined up data to directly compute the Difficulty/hr variable.

    Unfortunately, the standard deviation is too high with the data available. It wasn't as useful as I had hoped. You can see the analysis on the C. Jello page I added to my sheet (scroll down). It actually scared me because the average was close to 1500. So I thought maybe there is something very wrong with my calculation - but I don't think there is, this is just not a large enough sample.

    Hey Chewy... I see one problem in the C. Jello page which may be affecting your calculations. Your drop down of "Voyage time w. Refills" (Row 41) doesn't get the actual time w. refills. It only grabs my "free" time before refilling (Row 4) other than column F and J where I did not have the time before I refilled. The rest (Col M, O, R-U, W-Y) times are too low so it's increasing the difficulty calculation. If I didn't do a revive, the time is in Row 4. If I did, the correct time is in row 5.
  • That's awesome data there. I already copied most of the runs to my sheet. Will continue to pull updates every once in a while.

    I also tried taking your already lined up data to directly compute the Difficulty/hr variable.

    Unfortunately, the standard deviation is too high with the data available. It wasn't as useful as I had hoped. You can see the analysis on the C. Jello page I added to my sheet (scroll down). It actually scared me because the average was close to 1500. So I thought maybe there is something very wrong with my calculation - but I don't think there is, this is just not a large enough sample.

    Hey Chewy... I see one problem in the C. Jello page which may be affecting your calculations. Your drop down of "Voyage time w. Refills" (Row 41) doesn't get the actual time w. refills. It only grabs my "free" time before refilling (Row 4) other than column F and J where I did not have the time before I refilled. The rest (Col M, O, R-U, W-Y) times are too low so it's increasing the difficulty calculation. If I didn't do a revive, the time is in Row 4. If I did, the correct time is in row 5.

    Actually, I already handle that. The formula is =IF(ISBLANK(D5),D6,D5)
  • That's awesome data there. I already copied most of the runs to my sheet. Will continue to pull updates every once in a while.

    I also tried taking your already lined up data to directly compute the Difficulty/hr variable.

    Unfortunately, the standard deviation is too high with the data available. It wasn't as useful as I had hoped. You can see the analysis on the C. Jello page I added to my sheet (scroll down). It actually scared me because the average was close to 1500. So I thought maybe there is something very wrong with my calculation - but I don't think there is, this is just not a large enough sample.

    Hey Chewy... I see one problem in the C. Jello page which may be affecting your calculations. Your drop down of "Voyage time w. Refills" (Row 41) doesn't get the actual time w. refills. It only grabs my "free" time before refilling (Row 4) other than column F and J where I did not have the time before I refilled. The rest (Col M, O, R-U, W-Y) times are too low so it's increasing the difficulty calculation. If I didn't do a revive, the time is in Row 4. If I did, the correct time is in row 5.

    Actually, I already handle that. The formula is =IF(ISBLANK(D5),D6,D5)

    Oops! Just realized I had those references reversed >_<

    Having fixed that, the data looks a lot better, but stdev is still 381 (compared to 522). The graph looks much nicer, though, and the average is 1292 now, which is much closer to my prediction of 1250.
  • Chewable C++Chewable C++ ✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    That's awesome data there. I already copied most of the runs to my sheet. Will continue to pull updates every once in a while.

    I also tried taking your already lined up data to directly compute the Difficulty/hr variable.

    Unfortunately, the standard deviation is too high with the data available. It wasn't as useful as I had hoped. You can see the analysis on the C. Jello page I added to my sheet (scroll down). It actually scared me because the average was close to 1500. So I thought maybe there is something very wrong with my calculation - but I don't think there is, this is just not a large enough sample.

    Hey Chewy... I see one problem in the C. Jello page which may be affecting your calculations. Your drop down of "Voyage time w. Refills" (Row 41) doesn't get the actual time w. refills. It only grabs my "free" time before refilling (Row 4) other than column F and J where I did not have the time before I refilled. The rest (Col M, O, R-U, W-Y) times are too low so it's increasing the difficulty calculation. If I didn't do a revive, the time is in Row 4. If I did, the correct time is in row 5.

    Actually, I already handle that. The formula is =IF(ISBLANK(D5),D6,D5)

    Oops! Just realized I had those references reversed >_<

    Having fixed that, the data looks a lot better, but stdev is still 381 (compared to 522). The graph looks much nicer, though, and the average is 1292 now, which is much closer to my prediction of 1250.

    Also noticed another problem with the chart formula. Fixing it now...

    UPDATE: Interestingly, now the graph is centering on 1200 (and the median is 1226, which is very close to the value my calculator currently uses - 1230).
  • XoiikuXoiiku ✭✭✭✭
    I see some screenshots with some funky numbers. For example, Xoiiku - why do you have your Gold * skill at second to lowest skill points?

    I have chronic cluster headaches and so sometimes I just throw people in ships and shuttles and don't plan it out very well. So no reason other than painmode. I didn't even notice that until I posted those screenshots, and thought, well, that's not good. I did manage to think through the name of the ship though, Need more Data. :D

    I've got a voyage coming back with numbers that demonstrate a little bit better strategy. I don't know if that voyage data messes with the formulas or whatever, I can post new images if that's helpful.

    We are all downstream from each other and ourselves, therefore choose to be relaxed and groovy.
    Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
  • XoiikuXoiiku ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    Here are 3 screenshots which have all the M0R3 D4T4 needed to fill out the forms for both:
    STT Voyage Hazard Counts and STT Voyage Data

    1. Starting Antimatter at beginning of the voyage as well as Primary and Secondary Skills:
    lcy1vo1cnlz6.png

    2. Actual Voyage Time excluding refills/recall and Unused Antimatter:
    19fn9o52957c.png

    3. Hazard Checks:
    a7h8qji7vxbs.png

    Spreadsheet: STT Voyage Time Estimator
    TOOL: STT Voyage Estimator
    We are all downstream from each other and ourselves, therefore choose to be relaxed and groovy.
    Consider participating in civil discourse, understanding the Tardigrade, and wandering with the Subspace Eddies.
  • since refil costs are "fixed" based on duration of voyage (time in min)/5 at the time of refil.. you could enhance the tool to relflect multiple refil dil estimates...

    for example...
    1st refil extends time by x:xx for XX dil refil. for total estimated voyage time of x:xx
    2nd refil estimated at (base time+extend time) for x:xx extension for XX dil refil (total yy for total ext time x:xx
    3rd,
    4th,

    note as voyage is extended accuracy decreases.. but it would give people an estimate to have enough dil to go an estimated time...

    just trying to assist.
  • I did some math of my previous voyages to your cost analysis calculator, and it is pretty well spot on. Well done!
    Always good to say "5% or 10% buffer" though, agreed.
    "When the Future becomes the past, the present will become unlocked."
  • Interestingly, now the graph is centering on 1200.
    since refil costs are "fixed" based on duration of voyage (time in min)/5 at the time of refil.. you could enhance the tool to relflect multiple refil dil estimates...

    for example...
    1st refil extends time by x:xx for XX dil refil. for total estimated voyage time of x:xx
    2nd refil estimated at (base time+extend time) for x:xx extension for XX dil refil (total yy for total ext time x:xx
    3rd,
    4th,

    note as voyage is extended accuracy decreases.. but it would give people an estimate to have enough dil to go an estimated time...

    just trying to assist.

    That's not a bad idea. I'll add it to my todo list.

    Actually extension time can be estimated very precisely, especially subsequent ones, because the RNG from hazard checks is out of the equation (since they will all fail for most crews).
  • Hey Chewy... If you're looking for more data, I have another 16 voyages on my spreadsheet (#24 - #39). that you can add to your "STT Voyage Time Estimator - [C.Jello]" sheet.
  • [RO]BitterDevil[RO]BitterDevil ✭✭✭
    edited October 2017
    dividing by 21 is not a correct estimate...i just had a voyage recharge at 13:53h and i managed only 2:08h-128min with 2800 AM when divided by 21 it should've been 5 min longer....had to use 200 dili not to lose my voyage :( dividing by 22 seems to be the most accurate estimate
  • All. I just ran a 24 hour voyage and what a waste it was... After 14 hours had an excellent cache including 6 four star characters chrons honor etc... Only 2 more up to 20 hours. THEN not squat for last 600 DL spent except useless schems and trainers, chrons... I was amazed . no more than 14 hr from here on for me. .I was under impression longer was better for rewards ... I hate the fact we can't capture logs for everything we do, including voyages and purchases, hell even for emails we get in game.. Not on topic though 😄
Sign In or Register to comment.